13-week cash forecast — 19 Oct to 17 Jan 2027
This tab is a FORECAST. Everything in it is an assumption. The reconciled actuals live on
the other tabs and are not affected by anything here. The only figure the two share is opening cash:
week 1 opens at €55,340, which is TOTAL KNOWN CASH exactly. Receipts banked before
19 Oct are inside that opening balance and are never forecast again.
Base-case cash out
16 Nov
week 5 · no new funding
13-week receipts
€31,338
€10,482/mo · contracted book only
13-week expenditure
€143,241
€46,538/mo incl. quarterly items
Funding to hold €25K
€98,396
conservative collections · €220,563 if ProtoQ demands its arrears
Weekly cash curve — all four scenarios
Every scenario breaks in the same week, and it is not payroll that does it.
The week of 16 Nov carries €35,685 of quarterly obligations in a single week
— WorldCheck €15,975 on ~21 Nov and the Q3 IVA remittance of €19,710 on 20 Nov. Smoothing
those into a monthly average is exactly what makes a runway look survivable right up until the quarter lands.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Receipts | Spend |
Cash out | Minimum cash |
Fund to €0 | €20K |
€25K | €50K |
|---|
A · Base
Every confirmed obligation paid on its contractual date | €31,338 | €143,241 | 16 Nov 2026 | €-56,563 (W13) | €56,563 | €76,563 | €81,563 | €106,563 |
B · Conservative
Receipts delayed and reduced by the variation already in the record | €14,505 | €143,241 | 16 Nov 2026 | €-73,396 (W13) | €73,396 | €93,396 | €98,396 | €123,396 |
C · Negotiated
Only reductions the contract or payment record supports | €31,338 | €132,658 | 16 Nov 2026 | €-45,980 (W13) | €45,980 | €65,980 | €70,980 | €95,980 |
D · Stress
ProtoQ demands its full arrears, on conservative collections | €14,505 | €282,241 | 09 Nov 2026 | €-212,396 (W13) | €212,396 | €232,396 | €237,396 | €262,396 |
The old 6% MoM growth case is deliberately absent. There is no observed growth to project: the contracted
book falls to €2,440/month net from November, which is one customer.
The requirement is a range, and ProtoQ is what sets it. Holding a €25,000 floor through
13 weeks needs €98,396 on conservative collections. That figure assumes
ProtoQ never asks for its arrears. It is owed €134,000, was last paid
€10,000 on 2026-09-22, is owed October's €10,000 now, and is being paid €10,000 a month
against an agreed €15,000. If it asks for the arrears on the instalments it proposed in January, the
requirement is €126,563; if it calls the balance in full,
€220,563. Every lever the company holds without raising a euro takes the floor to
€52,045.
Base case — week by week
| Wk | From | Opening | Receipts |
Payroll | Contractors | ProtoQ |
Arrears | Software | Office |
Tax/IVA/SS | Except. | Financing |
Closing |
|---|
| W1 | 19 Oct | €55,340 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | €55,340 |
| W2 | 26 Oct | €55,340 | €12,585 | — | €8,642 | €10,000 | — | €1,185 | — | — | — | — | €48,098 |
| W3 | 02 Nov | €48,098 | — | — | €5,227 | — | — | €506 | €111 | — | — | — | €42,254 |
| W4 | 09 Nov | €42,254 | €4,127 | — | — | €10,000 | — | €661 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €34,401 |
| W5 | 16 Nov | €34,401 | — | €7,357 | — | — | — | €15,975 | — | €19,710 | — | — | €-8,641 |
| W6 | 23 Nov | €-8,641 | €3,187 | — | €6,500 | — | — | €201 | — | — | — | — | €-12,156 |
| W7 | 30 Nov | €-12,156 | — | — | €7,369 | — | — | €506 | €111 | — | — | — | €-20,142 |
| W8 | 07 Dec | €-20,142 | €3,001 | — | — | — | — | €211 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-18,671 |
| W9 | 14 Dec | €-18,671 | €1,125 | €5,357 | — | €10,000 | — | €450 | — | — | — | — | €-33,352 |
| W10 | 21 Dec | €-33,352 | €3,187 | €3,857 | €2,900 | — | — | €201 | — | — | — | — | €-37,124 |
| W11 | 28 Dec | €-37,124 | — | — | €5,742 | — | — | €260 | €111 | — | — | — | €-43,237 |
| W12 | 04 Jan | €-43,237 | €3,001 | — | €5,227 | — | — | €246 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-47,027 |
| W13 | 11 Jan | €-47,027 | €1,125 | — | — | €10,000 | — | €661 | — | — | — | — | €-56,563 |
B · Conservative — week by week
| Wk | From | Open | Recv |
Pay | Ctr | PQ |
Arr | SW | Off |
Tax | Exc | Fin |
Close |
|---|
| W1 | 19 Oct | €55,340 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | €55,340 |
| W2 | 26 Oct | €55,340 | — | — | €8,642 | €10,000 | — | €1,185 | — | — | — | — | €35,513 |
| W3 | 02 Nov | €35,513 | — | — | €5,227 | — | — | €506 | €111 | — | — | — | €29,669 |
| W4 | 09 Nov | €29,669 | — | — | — | €10,000 | — | €661 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €17,689 |
| W5 | 16 Nov | €17,689 | €4,304 | €7,357 | — | — | — | €15,975 | — | €19,710 | — | — | €-21,049 |
| W6 | 23 Nov | €-21,049 | €2,851 | — | €6,500 | — | — | €201 | — | — | — | — | €-24,898 |
| W7 | 30 Nov | €-24,898 | — | — | €7,369 | — | — | €506 | €111 | — | — | — | €-32,884 |
| W8 | 07 Dec | €-32,884 | — | — | — | — | — | €211 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-34,414 |
| W9 | 14 Dec | €-34,414 | €2,249 | €5,357 | — | €10,000 | — | €450 | — | — | — | — | €-47,972 |
| W10 | 21 Dec | €-47,972 | €2,851 | €3,857 | €2,900 | — | — | €201 | — | — | — | — | €-52,079 |
| W11 | 28 Dec | €-52,079 | — | — | €5,742 | — | — | €260 | €111 | — | — | — | €-58,192 |
| W12 | 04 Jan | €-58,192 | — | — | €5,227 | — | — | €246 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-64,984 |
| W13 | 11 Jan | €-64,984 | €2,249 | — | — | €10,000 | — | €661 | — | — | — | — | €-73,396 |
C · Negotiated — week by week
| Wk | From | Open | Recv |
Pay | Ctr | PQ |
Arr | SW | Off |
Tax | Exc | Fin |
Close |
|---|
| W1 | 19 Oct | €55,340 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | €55,340 |
| W2 | 26 Oct | €55,340 | €12,585 | — | €8,642 | €10,000 | — | €1,185 | — | — | — | — | €48,098 |
| W3 | 02 Nov | €48,098 | — | — | €5,227 | — | — | €506 | €111 | — | — | — | €42,254 |
| W4 | 09 Nov | €42,254 | €4,127 | — | — | €10,000 | — | €436 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €34,626 |
| W5 | 16 Nov | €34,626 | — | €7,357 | — | — | — | €15,975 | — | €19,710 | — | — | €-8,416 |
| W6 | 23 Nov | €-8,416 | €3,187 | — | €6,500 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | €-11,730 |
| W7 | 30 Nov | €-11,730 | — | — | €5,227 | — | — | €506 | — | — | — | — | €-17,463 |
| W8 | 07 Dec | €-17,463 | €3,001 | — | — | — | — | €211 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-15,992 |
| W9 | 14 Dec | €-15,992 | €1,125 | €5,357 | — | €7,500 | — | €225 | — | — | — | — | €-27,948 |
| W10 | 21 Dec | €-27,948 | €3,187 | €3,857 | €2,900 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | €-31,519 |
| W11 | 28 Dec | €-31,519 | — | — | €3,600 | — | — | €260 | — | — | — | — | €-35,379 |
| W12 | 04 Jan | €-35,379 | €3,001 | — | €5,227 | — | — | €246 | — | €1,319 | — | — | €-39,169 |
| W13 | 11 Jan | €-39,169 | €1,125 | — | — | €7,500 | — | €436 | — | — | — | — | €-45,980 |
Expected customer receipts — customer by customer
Built from contracted instalments and observed payment behaviour, gross of IVA because that is what reaches
the bank. MRR is not used anywhere in this forecast. MRR is €6,335 a month; the
contracted book produces €10,482 a month of cash. They are different questions.
| Customer | Expected | Gross |
Confidence | Basis |
|---|
| Lince Capital | 30 Oct | €7,173.98 | MEDIUM | OVERDUE — due 12 Oct, not yet received. third and final instalment of a €23,997.51 net contract; the first two were paid on schedule |
| Insula Capital | 30 Oct | €9,225.00 | LOW | OVERDUE — due 04 Oct, not yet received. FT A/00134 of 4 Sep, €7,500 + IVA; not yet received |
| RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) | 30 Oct | €3,749.00 | LOW | OVERDUE — due 23 Oct, not yet received. metered usage billed in arrears; Mar–Aug mean, nil in one of six months |
| RE/MAX Latina (Sold Fast) | 10 Nov | €3,001.20 | HIGH | €3,001.20/mo, paid in each of the last five months |
| Vintage Patamar | 15 Nov | €2,250.90 | LOW | €4,095.90 on 22 Sep, €2,250.90 on 15 Oct; no contract |
| RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) | 23 Nov | €3,749.00 | MEDIUM | metered usage billed in arrears; Mar–Aug mean, nil in one of six months |
| RE/MAX Latina (Sold Fast) | 10 Dec | €3,001.20 | HIGH | €3,001.20/mo, paid in each of the last five months |
| Vintage Patamar | 15 Dec | €2,250.90 | LOW | €4,095.90 on 22 Sep, €2,250.90 on 15 Oct; no contract |
| RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) | 23 Dec | €3,749.00 | MEDIUM | metered usage billed in arrears; Mar–Aug mean, nil in one of six months |
| RE/MAX Latina (Sold Fast) | 10 Jan | €3,001.20 | HIGH | €3,001.20/mo, paid in each of the last five months |
| Vintage Patamar | 15 Jan | €2,250.90 | LOW | €4,095.90 on 22 Sep, €2,250.90 on 15 Oct; no contract |
The contracted book runs out in October. Lince Capital's final instalment was due on 12 Oct and
has not arrived; with it the contract ends. Overdue now: Lince Capital €7,174, Insula Capital €9,225, RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) €3,749, carried at one confidence
notch lower rather than assumed banked. From November the signed schedule is €2,440/month net — RE/MAX
Latina alone; Vintage Patamar has paid twice since September without a contract and is carried at low
confidence. RE/MAX Rumo paid €3,376/month from March to June and nothing since; it is forecast at zero. RE/MAX
Vantagem usage is real but irregular — nil in one of the last six months.
ProtoQ — reconciled against the figures the supplier gave us
| Invoice #57 (Jul–Dec 2025) | €104,000 |
| 2026 work, Feb–Sep @ €15,000 agreed | €135,000 |
| Total accrued | €239,000 |
| Paid in 2026 | −€105,000 |
| OUTSTANDING |
€134,000 |
| band, if €10,000 is accepted from Aug |
€124,000 – €134,000 |
| Of which billed and overdue | €104,000 |
| Repayment plan agreed? | No — none was ever set |
| Next payment | €10,000 on 14 Nov 2026 |
| Source | ProtoQ figures relayed by Rodolfo Santos, 15 Sep 2026 |
Their statement vs our ledger
| Ours | Theirs | Diff |
|---|
| 2025 payments | €58,153 | €66,420 |
€8,268 |
| 2026 payments | €85,002 | €85,000 |
€2 |
| Total paid to date |
€163,155 |
€151,420 |
€8,266 |
| Unexplained |
€0 |
Both differences are explained. The €8,268 is a November 2025 payment against Invoice 48,
made from Bankinter before our Bankinter ledger begins on 8 Dec 2025 — exactly the gap flagged as
possible while the balance was still a reconstruction. The €2.00 is four €0.50 transfer fees we record and
the supplier does not. Their list is by invoice month and ours by the date cash left the bank, so the
months differ while the totals agree. Neither record has been adjusted to match the other.
Three things are now settled that were assumptions.
The old bill is €104,000. No repayment schedule for it was ever agreed —
so the company is not in arrears on a plan, and the €15,000/month instalments ProtoQ asked for in January are
a scenario, not an obligation. And €15,000/month remains the agreed rate: the €10,000 being
paid since August is a reduction VeriCasa applied, not one ProtoQ has confirmed.
That last point splits cash from liability, and the model now splits them too. The 13-week
forecast pays €10,000 a month, because that is what leaves the bank. The accrual cost base carries €15,000,
because that is what was agreed — booking it at €10,000 would quietly write off €5,000 a month that is
still owed. The difference builds at €5,000 a month and is the whole width of the band above.
Where the balance stands today: €134,000. The last payment of
€0 on 2026-09-22 took €10,000 off it; the accrual gap
puts €5,000 a month back on. The next contractual payment is €10,000 on
14 Nov 2026.
This is not a creditor-confirmed balance. ProtoQ figures relayed by Rodolfo Santos, 15 Sep 2026 — ProtoQ itself has
issued no statement of account, and the request drafted for Mykola was never sent. Two things therefore
remain genuinely open: whether the 2026 payments were applied to the old bill or to current work, and
whether current work has been billed on top at all. Only ProtoQ's own statement settles them.
ProtoQ — every payment on record
| Date | EUR | Account |
|---|
| 2025-08-08 | €12,544.00 | Revolut EUR |
| 2025-08-21 | €4,376.00 | Revolut EUR |
| 2025-09-16 | €10,776.00 | Revolut EUR |
| 2025-10-17 | €14,934.00 | Revolut EUR |
| 2025-12-28 | €15,522.00 | Bankinter |
| 2025-12-28 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| 2026-02-16 | €15,000.00 | Bankinter |
| 2026-02-16 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| 2026-03-27 | €15,000.00 | Bankinter |
| 2026-03-27 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| 2026-05-14 | €15,000.00 | Bankinter |
| 2026-05-14 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| 2026-07-13 | €15,000.00 | Revolut USA EUR |
| 2026-07-17 | €15,000.00 | Bankinter |
| 2026-07-17 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| 2026-08-12 | €10,000.00 | Revolut USA EUR |
| 2026-09-18 | €10,000.00 | Revolut USA EUR |
| 2026-09-22 | €10,000.00 | Bankinter |
| 2026-09-22 | €0.50 | Bankinter |
| Total paid, all years |
€151,420.00 | |
Treatment in the model
| Current work (operating cost) | €10,000/mo |
| Arrears (balance-sheet liability) | €134,000 |
|
The arrears are never added to the recurring cost base or to operating burn. They are a
liquidity obligation whose timing is a negotiation, so each treatment below is an explicit payment schedule
carried on its own line. Only the €10,000/mo of current work is opex. |
Funding requirement by ProtoQ treatment
The arrears are the swing factor, and they swing by more than €140,000. Every row opens at the same
€55,340 and differs only in when the old balance is paid.
| Treatment | To €0 | To €25K floor |
To €50K | Cash out |
|---|
A · Operating only — arrears untouched
What the business costs to run if ProtoQ keeps waiting, as it has since 12 Aug | €56,563 | €81,563 | €106,563 | 16 Nov 2026 |
B · Current arrangement — €15,000/mo arrears
The instalment plan VeriCasa itself proposed in January 2026 | €101,563 | €126,563 | €151,563 | 16 Nov 2026 |
B′ · Current arrangement, conservative collections
The same, with receipts delayed as they have been before | €118,396 | €143,396 | €168,396 | 16 Nov 2026 |
C · Immediate demand for the full balance
ProtoQ calls the debt. No demand has been made | €195,563 | €220,563 | €245,563 | 09 Nov 2026 |
D · Negotiated — arrears over 24 months
€5,375/mo against the old balance, alongside €10,000/mo current work | €73,313 | €98,313 | €123,313 | 16 Nov 2026 |
D′ · Negotiated + cuts + WorldCheck deferred
Every lever except new money, short of a tax instalment plan | €46,755 | €71,755 | €96,755 | 23 Nov 2026 |
D″ · D′ plus a statutory IVA instalment plan
The floor: everything the company can do without raising a euro | €27,045 | €52,045 | €77,045 | 14 Dec 2026 |
How much to raise depends entirely on ProtoQ, and on nothing else. To hold a €25,000
floor through the 13 weeks:
• €81,563 if the arrears stay where they are (A).
• €126,563 on the €15,000/mo instalments VeriCasa itself proposed (B), or
€98,313 spread over 24 months (D).
• €220,563 if ProtoQ calls the whole balance (C).
• €52,045 is the floor — every lever the company holds without raising a euro (D″).
C is a tail risk, not a forecast: ProtoQ has carried this balance for a year, has never issued a demand, and
the August conversation was cordial. But it is the creditor's choice, not VeriCasa's, and it is the only
scenario where the company cannot pay its way through the quarter.
The levers that are not "raise or shrink"
An earlier version of this page said there was no third option. That was wrong — there are at least six
levers, they combine, and together they take the new money required from €76,388 down to
€52,045. What they cannot do is close the gap.
| Lever | Worth | Type | Constraint |
|---|
| Arrears rescheduled over 24 months | removes a €134,000 demand risk |
DEFERRAL |
Needs ProtoQ's agreement. Costs €16,125 of cash inside the 13 weeks — paying something is dearer than paying nothing, which is the status quo |
| Evidence-supported cost reductions | €5,179/mo |
PERMANENT |
The only permanent lever on the list |
| WorldCheck deferred 60 days | €15,975 |
DEFERRAL |
Needs LSEG's agreement; improves the trough, not the cash-out date |
| IVA on a statutory instalment plan | €19,710 inside the window |
DEFERRAL |
Portuguese law allows payment in prestações. Q3 is €19,710 on 20 Nov — the full output IVA per SAF-T |
| Chasing overdue receivables | €20,148 |
COLLECTION |
Lince Capital €7,174, Insula Capital €9,225, RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) €3,749. Already in the forecast at reduced confidence; collecting in full is worth the difference |
| Founder / Haverhill funding | €138,884 precedent |
NEW MONEY |
Three wires in 2026, most recently 17 Aug. The fastest available source |
Stacking every non-funding lever takes the requirement from €76,388 to €52,045
— a €18,756 improvement, and worth taking. But note what the stack is made of: one permanent saving of
€5,179/month and a series of deferrals. Forward burn after the cuts is still
€30,877/month against €10,482/month of receipts.
So the honest correction is this: there are several options for how much to raise and
when to pay, and they are worth roughly €19,000 of new money plus the removal of a
€134,000 demand risk. There is no combination of them that removes the need to raise
money, because the company spends about three and a half times what it collects.
Funding requirement
When the floor is crossed (base case)
| Cash falls below €30,000 | W5 · 16 Nov | €-8,641 |
| Cash falls below €20,000 | W5 · 16 Nov | €-8,641 |
| Cash falls below €10,000 | W5 · 16 Nov | €-8,641 |
| Cash runs out | W5 · 16 Nov | €-8,641 |
Funding to hold a floor, by scenario
| Scenario | €0 | €20K |
€25K | €50K |
|---|
| A · Base | €56,563 | €76,563 | €81,563 | €106,563 |
| B · Conservative | €73,396 | €93,396 | €98,396 | €123,396 |
| C · Negotiated | €45,980 | €65,980 | €70,980 | €95,980 |
| D · Stress | €212,396 | €232,396 | €237,396 | €262,396 |
Funding to buy runway
| Runway | At €36,056/mo | After cuts, €30,877/mo |
|---|
| 3 months | €52,828 | €37,291 |
| 6 months | €160,996 | €129,922 |
| 12 months | €377,332 | €315,184 |
Net of the €55,340 already held. Forward burn is the recurring cost base
(€46,538/mo, quarterly items included at a third each) less realistic receipts
(€10,482/mo) — not a historical average.
Cost reduction — the cheapest credible route
Ordered by damage, not by size. Unexplained spend first, discretionary second, capability last. Nothing here
touches the two client-facing people or the AML data the product runs on — cutting those to save cash
removes the ability to earn it.
| Step | Monthly saving | Cumulative |
Effective | Rationale |
|---|
| Úrsula Maplehurst — advisory | €2,142 | €2,142 | ACTUAL SAVING | 23 Nov | Paid again for September (€2,141.58, 30 Sep) — the engagement is live, not lapsed. Advisory rather than delivery, so it can stop on notice. |
| ProtoQ OOD — dev team (current work) | €2,500 | €4,642 | RENEGOTIATION | 01 Dec | Already restructured from €15,000 to €10,000 on 4 Aug. A further step to €7,500 is a second negotiation with a supplier that is owed a six-figure balance — plausible, but not free, and not before November. |
| Other software and cards | €225 | €4,867 | ACTUAL SAVING | 25 Oct | AI tooling, LinkedIn, miscellaneous card spend. No contract, immediate. |
| Improve Vector | €201 | €5,068 | ACTUAL SAVING | 23 Nov | Minor tooling, one month's notice. |
| WeWork | €111 | €5,179 | ACTUAL SAVING | 23 Nov | Desk space; the team is distributed. |
€5,000/mo is reached on the third step, from unexplained contractor spend alone, effective
mid-October. €10,000/mo needs the ProtoQ renegotiation and cannot land before November.
€15,000/mo is not reachable without cutting engineering, sales or the AML data licence —
the maximum credible near-term reduction is €5,179/mo.
Cost cutting alone cannot reach breakeven. After every step above, the cost base is
€41,359/mo against €10,482/mo of receipts — a residual gap of
€30,877/mo. Closing that by cuts alone would mean removing roughly three
quarters of what remains, which is the product team, the sales team and the data licence. This is a revenue
and funding problem, and cuts buy time rather than solve it.
Costs investigated — and deliberately NOT cut
The previous pass recommended stopping four payees because their roles were undocumented in the cost model.
Investigating them changed two of those recommendations. A payee being absent from cfo.py is a
fact about cfo.py, not about whether the person is doing useful work.
| Cost | Monthly | Classification | What the evidence shows |
|---|
| Isha Umar | €3,250/mo | E · INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | €3,250/mo, started August, rising. No contract in any mailbox or Drive, no vericasa.com address, no calendar presence, paid by non-SEPA wire. That is a reason to ASK, not a reason to stop — stopping someone who turns out to be delivering would cost more than the €3,250. |
| João Fernando Oliveira | €1,977/mo | E · INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE | Monthly since April, €1,346 → €1,977. No contract located. Same reasoning: establish the role first. |
| İsmail Lambacıoğlu | €1,200/mo | D · NECESSARY | Holds ismail@vericasa.com and accepted the weekly team meeting on 25 Aug 2026. Active team, not an unexplained payee. The earlier recommendation to stop this was wrong. |
| Mandy Spaan | €3,500/mo | D · NECESSARY | Sole in-house engineer. Cutting it while also cutting ProtoQ would leave no one able to ship. |
| Nelson Agostinho | €2,000/mo | D · NECESSARY | Client-facing sales and support. |
| João Baião — salary | €1,857/mo | C · COMMITTED | Sole full-time employee; statutory notice and severance apply. |
| WorldCheck / Refinitiv — KYC data | €5,325/mo | D · NECESSARY | The AML data the product is built on. Cutting it ends the service. |
İsmail Lambacıoğlu was wrongly listed as an unexplained payee. He holds
ismail@vericasa.com and accepted the weekly team meeting invitation on 25 August 2026. He is
current team. The €1,200/mo previously counted as a saving is removed.
Isha Umar and João Fernando Oliveira remain unexplained — no contract in any of the
three mailboxes or in Drive, no company address, no calendar presence. Between them that is
€5,227/month. That is a reason to ask a direct question this week, not a reason to stop
paying: if either turns out to be delivering, stopping them costs more than the money saved.
Collections — what can actually be banked, and when
| Within 7 days (by 26 Oct) | €0 |
| Within 14 days (by 02 Nov) | €12,585 |
| Within 30 days (by 18 Nov) | €16,712 |
| Overdue today |
€20,148 |
Overdue: Lince Capital €7,174, Insula Capital €9,225, RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) €3,749. A receipt past its due date stays in the forecast until a ledger shows it, at one
confidence notch lower; it is never assumed to be inside opening cash.
WorldCheck — what deferral is worth
| Option | Minimum cash | Improvement | Cash out |
|---|
| Pay on schedule (21 Nov) | €-56,563 | — | 16 Nov 2026 |
| Defer 30 days | €-56,563 | — | 30 Nov 2026 |
| Defer 60 days | €-40,588 | +€15,975 | 30 Nov 2026 |
| Three instalments from 21 Nov | €-51,238 | +€5,325 | 23 Nov 2026 |
Deferring WorldCheck improves the depth of the hole by its full €15,975 but does not move the
cash-out date at all — the money runs out on 16 November, before the payment is due.
It is worth doing, and it is not a solution.
30-day action plan, ranked by euro impact
| # | Action | Liquidity | Type | By | Depends on |
|---|
| 1 | Secure funding — €98,396 to hold a €25K floor, €220,563 if ProtoQ calls its balance |
€98,396–220,563 |
NEW FUNDING |
cash by 16 Nov |
Haverhill or external; nothing else closes the gap |
| 2 | Get ProtoQ's statement of account and agree an arrears schedule in writing |
€134,000 at risk |
RENEGOTIATION |
this week |
One email. Removes the single largest unknown in the model |
| 3 | Provide for Q3 IVA — €19,710 output IVA per SAF-T, due 20 Nov, or request prestações |
€19,710 timing |
STATUTORY |
before 20 Nov |
Q2 settled 18 Sep: €11,887.84 against €11,800.89 SAF-T output IVA, the difference interest |
| 4 | Defer WorldCheck to 21 Dec or split into three |
€15,975 timing |
PAYMENT DEFERRAL |
before 21 Nov |
Improves the trough, does not move cash-out |
| 5 | Establish what Isha Umar and João Fernando Oliveira do |
€5,227/mo contingent |
POSSIBLE SAVING |
this week |
Ask Rodolfo. Do not stop payment before the answer |
| 6 | Decide on the Úrsula Maplehurst advisory engagement |
€2,142/mo |
POSSIBLE SAVING |
this month |
Paid again for September on 30 Sep from Revolut USA; live, not lapsed. Advisory, stoppable on notice |
| 7 | Collect the overdue receivables |
€20,148 |
COLLECTION |
this week |
Lince Capital €7,174, Insula Capital €9,225, RE/MAX Vantagem (usage) €3,749 |
Only items 5, 6 and 7 change cash permanently. Items 2 and 4 move payments in time and are
counted as such — a deferral is not a saving, and treating it as one is how a plan produces a number that
never arrives. Evidence-supported permanent savings total €5,179/month, which is
roughly a seventh of the forward burn.
Every recurring cost, ranked
| Cost | €/month | Status | Notice to reduce | What breaks if cut |
|---|
| ProtoQ OOD — dev team (current work) | €10,000 | COMMITTED | restructured 4 Aug 2026; further change needs a negotiation | the entire product team; there is no in-house replacement |
| IVA — Q3 remittance | €6,570 | COMMITTED | statutory | non-negotiable |
| WorldCheck / Refinitiv — KYC data | €5,325 | COMMITTED | contractual — annual licence | the AML screening the product is built on; cannot be dropped |
| Mandy Spaan | €3,500 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | senior engineer — sole in-house engineering |
| Isha Umar | €3,250 | DISCRETIONARY | unknown — no contract located | role undocumented; paid by non-SEPA wire, so based outside the EU |
| Úrsula Maplehurst — advisory | €2,142 | DISCRETIONARY | immediate | advisory — paid again for September |
| Nelson Agostinho | €2,000 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | sales & support — client-facing |
| João Fernando Oliveira | €1,977 | DISCRETIONARY | unknown — no contract located | role undocumented; paid monthly by SEPA transfer since April |
| João Baião — salary | €1,857 | COMMITTED | statutory notice + severance | sole full-time employee; head of sales |
| Yago Oliveira Pais | €1,800 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | developer |
| Vinicius Benini | €1,800 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | sales & support — client-facing |
| Carolina | €1,700 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | developer |
| İsmail Lambacıoğlu | €1,200 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | active team member — attends the weekly team meeting |
| Social security (TSU) | €892 | COMMITTED | statutory | non-negotiable while anyone is employed |
| João Baião — Christmas subsidy | €619 | COMMITTED | statutory | non-negotiable while employed |
| Other software and cards | €450 | DISCRETIONARY | immediate | AI tooling, GitHub, LinkedIn, misc |
| Monthly tax (Pag. Impostos) | €427 | COMMITTED | statutory | non-negotiable |
| Google Workspace | €260 | DISCRETIONARY | immediate | email and docs — cannot realistically stop |
| Multicert (certificates) | €246 | COMMITTED | annual term | qualified signatures — product dependency |
| Improve Vector | €201 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | minor tooling |
| HubSpot | €133 | DISCRETIONARY | annual term | CRM — pipeline and customer records |
| WeWork | €111 | DISCRETIONARY | 1 month | desk space |
| Revolut plan fees | €78 | DISCRETIONARY | immediate | both organisations' plan fees |
Why the business burns €32,808 a month
| Recurring costs exceed receipts by |
€27,513/mo |
84% |
| Exceptional / one-off costs |
€5,295/mo |
16% |
| Measured operating burn |
€32,808/mo | |
| MRR (subscription KPI) | €6,335/mo |
| Recognised operating revenue | €15,724/mo |
| Customer cash receipts (measured) | €33,416/mo |
| Forecast cash receipts (forward) | €10,482/mo |
| Recurring cost base | €46,538/mo |
This is overwhelmingly a revenue problem, not a cost spike. 84% of
the burn is simply that recurring costs are 1.8 times receipts. Only
€5,295/mo is one-off — social-security arrears and US immigration fees — and those
will stop. The forward picture is worse than the measured one, because measured receipts of
€33,416/mo included the Lince contract, which finishes in October.
24-Month Forecast — Base Case (flat revenue)
Built from gross lines. Opening cash €55,340 (total known cash, all accounts)
+ operating revenue − gross operating cost base €47,090/mo = closing cash.
Revenue is added once and once only. No founder injections, no growth assumption.
Base-case revenue: €8,522/mo — the 13-week forecast's base-case receipts,
net of IVA, per month: the signed book, observed usage and overdue receivables at their confidence weights.
Held flat. VAT-exclusive on both sides. The trailing quarter (€15,724/mo) is not used: it
carries Lince and one-off setup fees that do not recur.
| Month | Gross operating costs | Operating revenue | Net operating burn | Closing cash | |
|---|
| Nov 2026 | €47,090 | €8,522 | -€38,568 | €16,772 | |
| Dec 2026 | €47,090 | €8,522 | -€38,568 | €-21,796 | CASH OUT |
Cash out: Dec 2026 on flat revenue with no further funding.
Contracted-Book Case — no new sales
Revenue follows only the signed instalment schedule from the sales sheet
(Oct €8,272 · Nov €2,440 · Dec €2,440 · Jan €0) plus observed metered usage
of €3,876/mo. This is what happens if nothing new is closed. It is an
observation of the contract book, not an assumption.
| Month | Gross operating costs | Operating revenue | Net operating burn | Closing cash | |
|---|
| Nov 2026 | €47,090 | €6,316 | -€40,774 | €14,566 | |
| Dec 2026 | €47,090 | €6,316 | -€40,774 | €-26,208 | CASH OUT |
Cash out: Dec 2026
Planning-Growth Case — 6% MoM (ASSUMPTION)
This is an assumption, not an observation. Revenue starts at the trailing
run-rate €8,522/mo and compounds at 6% per month. Actual MRR has been
flat to down over the last four weeks. Shown for planning only.
| Month | Gross operating costs | Operating revenue | Net operating burn | Closing cash | |
|---|
| Nov 2026 | €47,090 | €9,033 | -€38,057 | €17,283 | |
| Dec 2026 | €47,090 | €9,575 | -€37,515 | €-20,231 | CASH OUT |
Cash out: Dec 2026 · Breakeven requires revenue of
€47,090/mo — 5.5× the current run-rate.
Assumptions, stated so they can be argued with
| Opening cash | €55,340 — TOTAL KNOWN CASH, identical in all four scenarios |
| Receipts basis | Contracted instalments and observed payment behaviour, gross of IVA. No new sales assumed in any scenario. |
| Confidence flexing | Base: high 100%, medium 85%, low 50%. Downside: high 95% and two weeks late, medium 60% and three weeks late, low nil. |
| Cost timing | Day of month reconstructed from actual payments, not monthly ÷ 4. Payroll and contractors land in the last week of the month. |
| Quarterly items | WorldCheck €15,975 on ~21 Nov (paid 28 May and 21 Aug); Q3 IVA €19,710 on 20 Nov — Q3 output IVA per the SAF-T exports, payable in full as Q2 was (€14,827 if Q1's input-IVA offset recurs). |
| ProtoQ | €10,000/mo, the rate actually leaving the bank, against an agreed €15,000. Arrears are excluded from the base, conservative and negotiated cases and priced separately. |
| Q2 IVA | Settled on 18 Sep — €11,887.84 (“PAG. IMPOSTOS”) against Q2 output IVA of €11,800.89 in the SAF-T exports; the €86.95 difference is late-payment interest. Nothing further is forecast for Q2. |
| FX | USD and GBP balances converted at the rates in the cash table; no FX movement is forecast. |
| Financing | Nil in all four scenarios. No Haverhill or founder funding is assumed. |
| Not modelled | The $5,000 of unresolved SVB transfers. Both are upside to opening cash. Banc of California ***3421 is in opening cash at its last-known $15,000. |